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    Environmental effect of high-, upper, and lower middle-income economies' energy mix: Is there a trade-off between unemployment and environmental quality?
    (Sage Publications Ltd, 2025) Cakmak, Tugba Koyuncu; Beser, Mustafa Kemal; Alola, Andrew Adewale
    The fact that scenarios of high unemployment potentially offer the opportunity for improved environmental sustainability remains a dilemma. In instances when environmental sustainability is triggered by increased unemployment, that poses a challenge in the simultaneous achievement of sustainable development goals (SDGs) 8 (decent work and economic growth) and 13 (climate action). On the basis of this concern, in this study, we examine whether a swap association exists between unemployment and environmental quality vis-a-vis the environmental Phillips curve (EPC) hypothesis for high-, upper, and lower middle-income (HUmLmI) economies (comprising both developed and developing countries) over the period 1990-2020. We used the novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation approach. From the findings, the EPC hypothesis is not valid in high-income (developed) economies in the short and long term. However, the validity of the EPC hypothesis was upheld in the upper and lower middle-income (developing) economies. This implies that the lack of decent work opportunities/high unemployment rates hampers environmental quality in high-income countries, promotes environmental quality in upper middle-income countries, and does not drive environmental quality in lower middle-income countries. In addition, economic growth and the use of fossil energy exacerbate environmental degradation. On the other hand, the consumption of renewable energy sources reduces environmental woes by -0.22, -0.54, and -1.15 in HUmLmI countries, respectively. This shows that renewable energy sources adapt to the environmental sustainability motive. These results imply that policy instruments to drive SDGs 8 and 13 in these income-categorized economies should be case specific rather than taking a unilateral policy approach.
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    Explaining employment and environmental degradation nexus with environmental employment curve (EEC): A sector-wide threshold estimation for China
    (Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2024) Cakmak, Tugba Koyuncu; Beser, Mustafa Kemal; Alola, Andrew Adewale
    China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide and has experienced significant economic growth in the last decade. The country also has significant employment capacity and has witnessed rapid economic growth in the recent years. This study aims to investigate the existence of the environmental employment curve (EEC) in China's main economic sectors. This study examines the relationship between carbon emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, renewable energy consumption and employment (industry, services, agriculture) in China over the period 1990-2020 using threshold autoregressive regression estimation. According to the EEC hypothesis, there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental pollution and employment rate. Empirical results show that the EEC hypothesis seems to hold in China. Further, an analysis of the impact of employment on environmental pollution in China's three main sectors - industry, service and agriculture - shows that the EEC hypothesis cannot be rejected in the industrial and the agricultural sectors. In addition, empirical results show that a 1% increase in energy consumption leads to a 0.92% increase in carbon emissions, while the use of renewable energy leads to a 0.18% decrease. These results suggest that investments in green energy transformation do not cause employment loss. Hence, it is important to drive policies that promote investments in renewable and clean technologies, stimulate research in renewable energy-related institutions and support public-private partnerships. Additionally, to generate employment without compromising on the environment or prosperity, policymakers should choose to implement alternative technologies that are less polluting or do not produce any carbon emissions.